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We now have a great many reports of the violence, arrests, and news censorship over the past several days. Political leaders have also been arrested and are is ongoing Internet blocking as well as blocking of social media platforms. Telephone service has also been reported as unreliable or unavailable. These are all the actions a repressive regime might undertake to protect itself; but the use of murderous gunfire by security forces is particularly notable.
There are many photographs of snipers strategically positioned in Khartoum; a trained sniper with a sniper rifle and scope can easily target a human head in close urban quarters. Unsurprisingly, we have seen on social media when possible a shocking number of bullet wounds to the head—typically fatal—of young men…disproportionately young men.
Radio Dabanga reports today:. As of December 25, , Amnesty International had received credible reports of 37 people killed at the hands of security forc es. That number was likely low at the time and has now certainly been greatly surpassed. We are no closer to seeing with any clarity what the political maneuvering is, given the palpable weakness of President al-Bashir.
Senior members of National Congress Party are always difficult to read, but particularly so now. Voices of support for al-Bashir do not seem to be numerous. But many middle-ranking and junior officers in the SAF are sick of the regime, its endless wars against people of the peripheries, and defections are quite likely.
NISS deliberations are perhaps the most opaque of all. In the morning Hemeti made a provocative declaration to his troops, implying that he and the RSF would soon be the power to reckon with in Sudan. The power configuration of the police, the Rapid Support Forces, the Sudan Armed Forces, and the National Intelligence Services is unclear at this point—and again, political divisions within the regime itself are largely opaque. There is tremendous pressure on al-Bashir coming from a number of directions, and it is difficult to see how he survives the present crisis.